How the Sports Betting Line is Made by RJ Bell

By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks.

RJ Bell

©Pregame.com 2006

Website: http://www.Pregame.com

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an “adjusted line.”

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team’s most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays.

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC) . Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker’s effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created.

Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football team such as USC. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team’s power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a “preliminary” pointspread on an upcoming game.

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Why the Line Changes

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line “feels right.” This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’). There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor).

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Reasons for such adjustments include:

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years.

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

What Is the Line Trying to Accomplish?

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public.

Contributed by:

Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not.”

How the Opening Line Is Made

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the betting action, public perception and betting patterns must be taken into account. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias

Using Reverse Line Movement To Win

This may enable you to get the stale more favorable sports betting line at the time the reverse line movement hits at the triggering Sportsbook. RLM takes place when more money/ sportsbook picks are bet by the small percentage of bettors that are on the unpopular side (the sharps) than is bet by the huge majority of players betting the popular side (the squares).

Also, games where over 60 percent of the public are on one side, yet there is reverse line movement of at least 10 cents on the Money Line from the opening number at the top five sportsbooks in MLB and NHL sports betting has also been profitable. All of this will be fun to follow (not to mention profitable) when every sport except baseball are going on simultaneously during the winter months.

http://prosportsonline.net

Thus, following reverse line movements is the same thing a following the smart money. This would make Miami +6 the RLM play.

So what causes RLM when the aim of most sportsbooks is to get as close to balanced action on both sides as possible? The answer to this is quite simple: the sharp bettors; the one’s who give sports betting advice. However, instead of the line rising as you might expect, it instead drops to Chargers -6.

NBA sports betting has the lowest two-year five-book RLM winning percentage among the 11/10 sports, but then again, every gambler in the world would kill to go 382-301-9, 55.9 percent, +48.90 units, and the 57.5 percent win rate this past season is nothing to sneeze at. Quite a few RLM followers watch the moves until almost game time, and then bet accordingly. Keep in mind that NCAAB was the most liquid sport in terms of top-five sportbooks however, with not a single sportsbook making the top five both years. Another important recommendation is to use a slow moving (but reliable) sportsbook. Last year was a good RLM season for NFL sports betting (45-29, 60.8 percent, +11.91), but two sportsbooks that were in the top five in NFL RLM in both seasons.

The proper way to make a sports bet using reverse line movement is to place your bet as soon as there is an RLM of one full point (or 10 cents in MLB and NHL) off of the opening line. Furthermore, they list the RLM records for many individual sportsbook, making it easy to spot which books this system is working at and which books it may be best to ignore.

So what we recommend is to only use the top five each season for each individual sport (in terms of units won). The records quoted below are based on the bets being made at the triggering books, so beating the move by a half-point or a few cents now and then would actually make your record even better.

By: Manny G

Article Directory: http://www.articledashboard.com

So what exactly is reverse line movement? RLM takes place when a large majority of bets are on one team, yet the line moves in the opposite direction. Sure, using this approach leaves open the possibility of the line turning around and moving back against you, but as you will see in bit, betting as soon as an RLM qualifies has been profitable in every major North American sport such as the last two seasons, so if one line turns around, so be it. To illustrate, let us say that San Diego Chargers open at -7 over the Miami Dolohins, and over 70 percent of the sports bets placed on the game are on San Diego. Note that these records are for sides only and do not include totals.

The NFL sports betting is generally considered the toughest sport to beat, yet blindly following this method produced an exceptional 59.2 percent win rate last season, improving the two year record to 328-249-12, 56.8 percent, +59.06 units. We tracked the top five books for each of the pointspread sports for the last two years, as as you can see, this strategy has been profitable in every sport. It should be noted that many fewer MLB games have qualified so far this season (is the whole world using RLM now?), but smaller profits is still profit.Again, these records are for Money Lines only and do not include totals.Finally, NHL sports betting has picked up 148.49 units in two years, and unlike MLB, NHL had four sportsbooks out of the top five gain double-digit units this past season. Carib ruled the roost season at 93-66-9, 58.5 percent, +18.55 units after ABC held the penthouse spot in the 2007-08 season.

. Keep a close eye on Canbet here, as that Australian sportsbook cracked the top five both years.

prosportsonline.net

The highest two-year winning percentage using RLM from the top five books belongs to College Football, which went 480-341-10, 58.5 percent, +95.10 units. This is where an important word of caution is in order though. The huge problem with this is that the nfl line, ncaaf line or nhl line may have moved too much by that time, and all of the value has been sucked out of the unpopular side.

College Basketball sports betting was not too shabby either, with a two-year mark of 492-356-22, 58.0 percent, +91.96 units. Keep an eyes on the top five sportsbooks at Sports Insights though, as NCAAF sports betting has been very liquid in that regard, with only one sportsbook (believe it or not, Bodog) finishing in the top five both years.

Now do the sharps win every single time? Absolutely not! However, they are right more often than they are wrong, so being on the same side as the sharps is a prudent strategy over the long run, and again, the best thing is that there in absolutely no conventional sports handicapping necessary..

To back this up, our friends over at Prosportsonline.net have tracked the records for games where over 60 percent of the public has been on one side, yet there was reverse line movement of at least one full point from the opening number at the top sportsbooks in NFL, NCAAF, NBA and NCAAB

The most expensive college football ticket can be found here

2, 2016 by Chris Isidore   @CNNMoney September 2, 2016: 3:21 PM ET

Fans will pay an average of $335.35 on the secondary ticket market to watch Notre Dame at home in South Bend this season, according to ticket tracker TiqIQ. That makes them only the 21st most expensive ticket, despite the team’s recent on-field success. They’ve been No.

Related: Under Armour signs on with Fighting Irish

Total football revenue for the 146 schools with major programs came to $3.7 billion for the 2014 season, the most recent figures reported to the federal government.

Notre Dame tickets are frequently the most expensive college tickets in the country. That comes to an average of about $30 million per school. 17 game when Ohio State visits Oklahoma will be the most expensive game in college football, with an average price of $687.86 to see the first Big Ten team to visit Oklahoma in 30 years. Notre Dame football brought in nearly three times that average amount, or $86.2 million. The Alabama tickets are actually 12% cheaper than they were last season. Michigan is the fifth most expensive ticket of the season at $524.23.

Terms & Conditions apply

NMLS #1136

The most expensive college football ticket can be found here – Sep. 2 Ohio State this season.

These are the prices that the tickets which are resold by fans, not what the teams get for tickets. The team’s large fan base beyond those who attended the school helps drive up demand for tickets, along with prices.

CNNMoney (New York) First published September 2, 2016: 3:21 PM ET

.

The college football season starts this weekend.

Meanwhile tickets to watch defending national champions Alabama are a relative bargain at an average price of $142.28.

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While that’s little changed from what Fighting Irish fans paid last year, it’s 17% more than the average price for games at No.

While Notre Dame has the highest average ticket prices, the Sept. 1 in price three of the last four years and were No. 2 in 2014, when they narrowly trailed Ohio State. Notre Dame’s home game that day vs

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Rocky Marciano – InfoBarrel

She smoked too, and developed a glandular problem. Rocky never wrote anything down, he tried to keep track of his loans in his head, and sometimes forgot who owed him, and how much. His wife, Barbara, was unable to have the large family Rocky wanted. Rocky hadn’t fought or trained for fourteen years. Although he enjoyed being champion, Marciano remained unchanged. Anthony for her son’s recovery, promising to give up her diamond engagement ring if Rocco recovered. It was an incredible run. Before the fight Marciano met with a priest, who after their meeting said: “That boy is no ordinary prizefighter, he is one of the most dignified, straightforward people I have ever met in my life. Then he was cut from the Chicago Cubs farm system. He would interrupt his training schedule to attend Mass. He knocked out nine of his early opponents in the first round. There was bad weather and the plane ran low on gas. He didn’t trust lawyers or accountants, and preferred to deal in cash. The champion was Jersey Joe Walcott, a ring veteran most experts picked to beat Marciano easily. Rocco refused but eventually he tired of having his name misspelled and mispronounced, and allowed his name to be shortened to Rocky Marciano. Marciano’s body was found pinned beneath the wreckage. He  hit his opponents on the break, after the bell, and below the belt. He was awkward in the ring. Or the estrangement may have developed over Rocky’s running, which may have sprung from a preoccupation with money. The sparring film would be spliced together to match the computer outcome of the fight – a closely guarded secret that would not be revealed until “The Superfight” aired in theaters.

Outwardly Marciano’s life after boxing was quite successful – unlike many fighters, he kept his money and his wits. Anthony before his first title fight, read The Confessions of St. Barbara missed Rocky, and drank too much. Yet he used a wire to try to get coins back he used to make telephone calls. The computer’s result: Marciano knocked out Ali in the thirteenth round. He had no boxing skills. Rocky always apologized, but the fouling continued.

After serving as a GI in World War II, Rocco played minor league baseball. He was invited to the White House to meet the President. After the Rock retired he kept running.

Rocky was generous with people who were down and out, often giving them unsecured loans that were rarely paid back. Once he hit a man so hard he almost killed him. The Marchegiano’s had five more children after Rocco: Alice, Connie, Elizabeth, Louis, and Peter. It is difficult to win a fight when you can’t reach your opponent. Lena’s doctor said she could have no more children; this put a fine edge on her concern for Rocco’s health.

After knocking out an old Joe Louis, Rocky got a title shot. Once, as a joke, the reigning sex symbol, Jayne Mansfield, was smuggled into a room where Marciano sat, alone. He made sure the people who invited him paid for everything.

Rocky’s last big payday was a computerized fight with Muhammed Ali in 1969. He golfed with priests, helped promote parish functions, even lunched with Cardinal Spellman. Life magazine called him “pure of speech” and “a clean living boy.” He was elsewhere described as “astonishingly innocent,” and “totally without deception, totally without guile.” He didn’t drink or smoke; in fact, when a host at a party for Marciano in Brockton offered the champ a drink, Rocky replied, “If you don’t mind, I’ll take an apple.” 

“In this age of the anti-hero and the non-hero, Rocky Marciano was the hero with whom the mass of Americans could readily identify, the hero who surmounted all difficulties by dint of hard work, dedication and perseverance. He was famous, successful, and well thought of. 

* * * . Walcott’s experience kept Marciano off-balance and sometimes made him look ridiculous. He usually didn’t pay anything for his cross-country trips: no plane fare, hotel fare, or meals. He even used a coat hanger to stuff money inside curtain rods.

Five months after Marciano’s death “The Superfight” debuted in theaters. Marciano stepped inside and beat Walcott to the punch with a short right hand that traveled maybe eight inches. Although he left thousands (some claim hundred of thousands) of dollars stashed away or buried underground, none of it was found to aid Barbara and the children, who were impoverished after Rocky’s death.

The answer: Rocky Marciano, heavyweight boxing champion from 1952 to 1956, when at age thirty-three he retired with a perfect record (49-0, with 43 knockouts). Rocco inherited his father’s toughness, for he survived a deadly bout of pneumonia when he was two. The pilot landed the plane in a field in Newton, Iowa, and rammed into a lone tree in the middle of the field. At the time boxing was a diversion, a way to make a few bucks to help out his family. The pilot and his two passengers were instantly killed. One sportswriter said Marciano brought the “austere, sackcloth-and -ashes approach of a monk” to his training. He boarded a small, single engine Cessna. His fanaticism about physical conditioning,  along with his determination and punching power, led to an unequalled record for a heavyweight champion: forty-nine professional wins, no defeats, forty-three victories by knockout. Rocky kept coming, even after Walcott knocked him down, closed his left eye, and opened cuts on his face that required fourteen stitches to close.

He and Lena settled in Brockton, a small city twenty miles south of Boston. On those occasions Rocco reached opponents with his right hand, however, they fell down and didn’t get up. 

His upbringing was steeped in Italian customs and traditions. His parents loved opera, ate Italian food, and had wine with dinner. Until Rocco put Brockton on the national map, his hometown was best known for its shoe factories. Ali complained about his ‘loss’, alleging the computer was made in Alabama. 

On August 31, 1969, Marciano planned to interrupt his business circuit and fly back to Florida to celebrate his forty-sixth birthday with his family. And Brockton loved him right back, at least in part because many of them became rich betting on Rocky’s fights. 

An investigation into the crash of the Cessna in NewtonIowa cited pilot inexperience as the cause of the crash. Rocky was a brawler. Rocco’s biggest limitation was arms so short they were almost stubby. At the last minute Rocky decided to squeeze in an appearance at a steak house in Des Moines, Iowa. He said if the man died he would quit fighting. Marciano went back into training and bought a toupee. An obituary in his home state of Massachusetts read:

Marciano was “a kind and decent man.”, He was “inherently a decent, righteous and truly wonderful guy…His innate decency and wholesomeness shine through in a dedicated glow.” Or: “We never cease to be amazed at the humility of Rocky Marciano…he treats everyone if they were the celebrity and he the awed little guy.” Another writer called him “probably the humblest of heavyweight champions.”  Said another: “He reminds you of a great, friendly collie …with the grin of a shy fellow happy to be recognized, at last, as a member of the gang in good standing.” He was “the gentlest athlete I have ever known,” and again: “a man of simplicity and sincerity.”

 Which heavyweight boxing champion in the last century knelt on his knees to pray to St. And he could be incredibly tight with a buck. Asked about his reaction when flying shrapnel hit his jaw and snapped off some teeth, Pierino replied, “I just spit them out and kept coming.” 

Everett M. Sometimes he would cover his chin and hands with St. The famous sportswriter Jimmy Cannon observed that Marciano trained “like a man practicing a holy ritual.” Before fights he would slip away to a church or chapel to pray.

Marciano’s character was on display in his first fight with Walcott, which was a classic. Rocky didn’t trust banks, either, so he hid his cash: in the ground, inside toilet tanks, in light fixtures. It hit Walcott’s jaw with the sound of a baseball bat. Yet even after he had enough money Rocky went after more. Rocky Marciano was champion.

Rocky was an old school Catholic. They had one daughter, but Barbara miscarried when Rocky was away, and wasn’t able to have any more children, although the two did adopt a boy (Rocky Jr.). Rocky seemed too busy to be home.

He was born Rocco Francis Marchegiano (Mark a-jahn-o) on September 1, 1923, the second son (the first died shortly after childbirth) of Pierino and Lena Marchegiano, first generation Italian immigrants who came to America after the first World War. He even had a role in a movie. Yet his retirement years revealed a man who seemed simple, but often was not.

Marchegiano went to New York and met Al Weill, a boxing manager who tried to Americanize his name. Stallone credited Chuck Wepner’s losing effort in a fight with Muhammed Ali as the inspiration for the film, yet the similarities of Rocky Balboa to Rocky Marciano are numerous and obvious. 

Marciano’s determination in the Walcott fight showed the world the new champion’s character and personality. They all lived in a two bedroom apartment. He was a near-classic example of the triumph of classic virtues (Boston Herald Traveler, September, 1969).” 

Russell Sullivan, Rocky Marciano, The Rock of His Times, 2002, University of Illinois Press, Urbana and Chicago.

Rocky ran from an early age. Jude’s oil while in his corner waiting for the start of that fight. 

He rarely saw his wife and children; or his parents, brothers, and sisters. Augustine before defending his title, and said: “The biggest thrill I could think of would be an audience with the pope?” 

In 1976 Sylvester Stallone began his “Rocky” franchise. Rocky slowly became a better boxer, but it was his punching power that kept him undefeated. When he wasn’t playing sports he was running and exercising.

Far behind on points late in the fight, Rocky needed a knockout to win. Even as champion he came to the ring in a robe bearing the colors of BrocktonHigh School (even though he dropped out in the tenth grade). Then Rocky and Ali sparred 70 rounds for the camera, simulating different endings to the fight. His marriage was strained. Skehan, Rocky Marciano, Biography of a First Son, Houghton Mifflin Company, Boston, 1977. 

Not that there is anything particularly Catholic about being a teetotaler.  It’s just that Marciano, though intelligent, was a very simple man who never forgot where he came from. His friends said the only thing Rocky was afraid of was being poor. The pilot had not flown at night before, became confused by the bad weather, and attempted to land in a field rather than the Newton airport. 

Perhaps it was his simplicity that allowed him to retire after beating everyone worth fighting. Walcott collapsed to the canvas and was counted out. Walcott bounced off and threw a hard left hand. Ali was in retirement too, after having his title stripped for refusing the draft. The man recovered, but never fought again.

(An experiment was performed on Rocky’s punching power. He was undersized for a heavyweight. Equally unique, Marciano never came out of retirement to challenge subsequent champions, a temptation very few ex-champions have overcome, much less succeeded at.

Sources 

While sportswriters criticized Marciano’s boxing shortcomings, no one criticized his character, as the following quotes show:

The doctor was wrong. Marciano spent hours at his opponent’s hospital bed, and in church praying for the man’s life. Ali later said that Marciano punched so hard he was sore for days after. He backed Walcott into the ropes. Several opponents quit boxing after being knocked out by Marciano. The 1963 issue of Boxing Illustrated claimed: “Marciano’s knockout blow packs more explosive energy than an armour-piercing bullet and represents as much energy as would be required to spot lift 1000 pounds one foot off the ground.”  Although this sort of ‘science’ was probably conducted by zealous Marciano fans, it is undeniably true that Rocky hit really hard.) 

Marciano died without a will. He would never be a classic boxer, but he worked unceasingly at improving his craft, and trained relentlessly. Rocco slept in the living room with the windows open, even in the winter, as if in defiance of his bout with pneumonia.

Lena prayed to St. The people of the world should be informed of this boy’s character and personality.” 

As he continued to successfully defend his title, Marciano gradually drew respect from critics. A few minutes later she came out complaining: “What is he, crazy? He didn’t want anything to do with me.” Marciano seemed more comfortable in the company of clergy than actresses. At the time many children died of pneumonia, but Rocco eventually recovered, and Lena kept her promise.

Maybe Rocky ran to avoid an estranged relationship with Barbara. He retained his public life, crisscrossing across the country to give speeches, participate in benefits, and conduct business. She and her friends prayed the Rosary at the child’s bedside and waited. Rocco was in his twenties, when most fighters hit their peak. As a boy Rocco was preoccupied with his physical condition. The nicest thing about being champ, he said, “is that people like you.”  Everyone but boxing experts, who found Rocky’s style too crude to suffer. Pierino’s exposure to mustard gas during combat changed his life, but not his toughness. There would be good food, a nice check for a few words, and still enough time to fly back for his birthday

Sports :: College Football – If You Thought SEC Was the Toughest NCAA Conference, Think Again

Again 3 of the 5 teams come from the Pac 10.

Knowing that the SEC is legion for scheduling Division 1AA teams in its non-conference schedule, I suspect that the SEC’s strength of schedule (the quality of its opponents) may not be as strong. 1 among the 242 Division 1A and 1AA schools.

There is so much buzz and hype about the Southeast Conference–better known as the SEC–you would think there are no other NCAA football conferences that can compare.

Another interesting fact of note is this: Since the NCAA established the Division 1A and 1AA separation in 1978, only 5 Division 1A schools have not played a Division 1AA school: Washington, Southern California, UCLA, Michigan State and Notre Dame. By comparison, the Big 12 played 10, the ACC and Big Ten played 7 games, the Big East 6, and the Pac 10 only 2.

When I add up the strength of schedule for the 12 SEC teams I get an average of 30 compared to an average strength of schedule of 14 for the Pac 10. The facts and statistics say otherwise.

Copyright © 2007 Ed Bagley

Ranked 11th among Division 1A conferences is Conference USA at 58.88. Three 1AA conferences are then rated above the last 1A conference–the Sun Belt–at 58.26.

The SEC already has 7 of its 12 teams with 7 or more wins and bowl eligible by NCCA standards, and now you know one of the reasons why.

For the record, Nebraska is No. Who plays the tougher schedule between the top two dogs? It is easily the Pac 10.

Sometimes a 1AA school can beat a 1A school (like Appalachian State beating Michigan at home 34-32), not because they are necessarily better but because the 1A school did not take them seriously.

I read other factors into his mathematical formula for deciding which conference is the toughest (best) conference.

It is the same reason why Hawaii is unbeaten at 10-0, having defeated two 1AA schools in fattening up its impressive win record while racking up the 153rd toughest schedule against the other 119 Division 1A schools.

Please, do not give me this garbage about the SEC playing the toughest schedule. 2, Stanford No. On a scale of 100 the difference is 70/100ths of 1, or close enough to not make a difference in my mind.

If you are wondering, the team that has played the toughest schedule during the first 12 weeks of the 2007 college football season is the Washington Huskies, and that is why they are ranked No. 5, so 3 of Top 5 teams in strength of schedule are from the Pac 10.

Sagarin rates all of the 242 individual 1A and 1AA teams and then combines them among conferences to arrive at these figures.

Even Jeff Sagarin in his Sagarin Ratings lists the SEC as the top conference with a central mean (that is Sagarin math talk) of 79.89 with the Pacific 10–better known as the Pac 10–second at 79.19. Turns out that I am right.. The “tough” SEC played exactly 10 Division 1AA opponents this season, more than any other conference in the country. 3, California No. 4 and Colorado No

Don’t Be a Square: 10 Tips for Betting on Football

“Squares usually bet later in the week and they tend to pick the favorites. “If you become an expert on a smaller conference like the WAC, you have a good chance to beat the house because sports book operators do not have the time or resources to follow this conference the way you can. If North Texas is his best bet on a Saturday then that is his bet. Avoid Exotic Bets – “For very skilled handicappers, with a proven track record, there can, at least in theory, be value in betting parlays,” says Gordon on the type of bet that combines two or more individual wagers. If you like an underdog, it is best to get your bet in as late as possible, where there is heavy action from squares on favorites. There are almost an infinite number of scenarios that can happen in a single football game. Otherwise, you’re better off doing your own research.”

“There is probably no better bet in sports than playing an underdog at home,” Moseman says. There is a wealth of information on the Internet; it is just up to you to find it and research it daily.”

“A square is the average, unsophisticated gambler whose decision making is based on hunches, media manipulation, or spurious systems that cannot overcome the bookmaker’s inherent mathematical advantage,” Konik explains.

“The bookies fear and despise a tiny coterie of professional bettors known as ‘the sharps,'” Konik says. Avoid Chasing Bets – “Don’t do it! There is no worse way to mismanage your bankroll than to chase your bets after a losing day,” cautions Moseman on the dangerous practice of trying to immediately win back your losses.

Ted Sevransky, a well-known Las Vegas gambler and sports consultant with Sportsmemo.com, agrees.

But even though the math says it’s virtually impossible to win on a consistent basis, Americans continue to bet on football. “For example, if you have a $1,000 bankroll for the season, you should generally bet no more than $50 a game.”

Another difference between squares and sharps is how they approach betting on game day.

5. Money Management – “This is without a doubt the most important aspect of betting on sports and possibly the most neglected,” says Morey “Doc” Moseman, a professional gambler and sports consultant with DocSports.com for nearly 40 years. He loses year after year, according to Dan Gordon, a top football handicapper and author of How to Beat the Sports Books (Cardoza Publishing 2005).

“The biggest mistake that amateur bettors make is they increase their bets when they are losing,” Sevransky says. “As for me, the best bet in football is betting the point spread or over/under totals on individual games. “The key to proper money management is to be sure not to bet more than you can afford to lose.”

Also, it’s probably a good idea to disregard advice from the myriad of ex-players and football experts you see on television each week. Chasing losses is the fastest way to the poor house.”

8. If you are going to go with a favorite, it is best to place your bet early in the week when the sharps are laying heavy money on the points.

“A sharp or smart has a plan of what he wants to do,” says Vaccaro, the director of sports operations and public relations at Lucky’s Race and Sports Book in Las Vegas. “Most people prefer to bet on the ‘better’ team, the one that will probably win the game. “Common wisdom says that over the course of a long football season the average man or woman will pick approximately 50 percent winners. “In the NFL, a game will often be totally turned around by one or two plays, or even a single penalty.

So, how much should you bet a game?

4. The NFL, for example, will have very similar numbers at most of the betting shops you visit. Bet at the Right Time – “The sharp bettors tend to bet underdogs, and they tend to bet them early,” Moseman says. Also, being “in action” can make a dull late-afternoon game (Buffalo vs.

Even Hollywood is not immune – think Two for the Money with Al Pacino and Matthew McConaughey.

And where does all that money go?

“The talking heads on TV know nothing about sports betting,” says Sevransky. On college you will be able to find different lines at different sports books. Big underdogs often find ways to cover the spread and they rarely give up toward the end of a game in front of the home crowd.”

1. Consider Underdogs – “In the long-run, it’s easier to win betting on the underdog,” Konik says. “Over the course of several seasons, the percentage of bettors who turn a profit is minuscule.”

2. “He is not jaded by teams and does not bet with his heart.

3. “Because alcohol clouds your judgment and usually helps you to make rash decisions you usually wouldn’t otherwise make. If you want advice about sports betting, find someone who has a successful track record. So underdogs tend to be slightly undervalued – except by the sharps.”

7.

However, Konik adds that there are some bettors who actually know how to beat the bookies. But, when you’re struggling, that’s when you want to reduce your bet size until you get out of your slump. Giving 11 to 10 odds is almost always the cheapest price you can give.”

And remember, in the immortal words of “Fast” Eddie Felson, “Money won is twice as sweet as money earned.”

“A square or recreational player might have a vague plan, but after two Corona’s he will definitely run to the window and make a hasty decision on the USC-Notre Dame game because he wants to be involved in the party atmosphere,” Vaccaro says. To be a successful sports bettor you need to operate with a clear mind.”

Betting on football games; whether it’s through a local bookie, an offshore Internet site or a Nevada casino (still the only legal place in America to make football bets), most of us have done it or know of someone who has. “There will be more discrepancy in the numbers at different sports books. Slim underdogs regularly win outright. The only touts bettors should consider are the ones who talk about the long haul and realistic winning percentages, which are in the upper 50 percent to lower 60 percent range.”

Moseman agrees and especially likes home underdogs. The payout is just the same as far as he is concerned. Research Football Services – “Most sports services realize that most people who sign up with them are insecure,” Gordon warns. Focus on Conferences – “The best way to win money betting football is to develop a niche and follow it closely,” Moseman advises. Locks Don’t Exist – “Anyone who has watched sports for about a month realizes that the difference between winning and losing, especially against the spread, can be infinitesimally small,” Gordon says.

“Most people with an understanding of football gambling bet between 3 percent and 5 percent of their bankroll, increasing when they win and reducing when they lose,” Vaccaro says.

Certainly not back into the pockets of the average bettor. “When you’re in a good rhythm and winning, you want to increase your bets.

“In an average season, fewer than one bettor in twelve turns a profit,” Gordon says. “In trying to bamboozle potential customers, many services make claims about having scouts all over the country that give them inside information and promise 70 or even 80 percent winners, as if the bookmakers were the biggest suckers in the world.

But that doesn’t mean you have to bet like a “square” and throw away your hard-earned money.

So, how much are we gambling each football season?

6. Thanks to the juice, the only one who profits in this scenario is the bookmaker. And why not? We have unconditional love for the sport and betting $50 or $100 on a game adds an extra rush of adrenaline. “If you listen to their advice, you are sure to lose.

10. Shop For Numbers – “Another important aspect of betting on football is shopping for the best number,” Moseman explains. Not all games work according to this formula, but it is usually a good rule of thumb.”

9. He is not taken in by being involved in USC-Notre Dame just because it is the biggest watched game of the day. “The sharps are usually members of a betting syndicate privy to the most up-to-date information on injuries, weather, game plans, and, most important, the real power of the teams involved. Oakland comes to mind) seem like the Super Bowl. In fact, sports bettors must pick 52.4 percent winners just to break even.”

While these tips don’t guarantee you’re going to win, hopefully they can make you a little less square and a little more sharp in your picks this season. They use powerful computers that can process millions of bits of data and produce a more accurate point-spread line than the bookmakers.” . “Thus, the bookies love and cherish the squares.”

“The standard bet requires gamblers to lay $11 for every $10 they want to win with the extra $1 or 10 percent known as the juice,” Konik says. The only locks that exist are those that need keys to open them.”

So, is it possible for the average square to become a little sharper in making football bets this season? According to professionals like Vacarro, Konik and Gordon, amateur bettors have the best chance to win if they demonstrate a little patience and follow the 10 basic tips below. These books change their numbers according to the betting patterns of their customers, so it is not entirely uncommon to find two or three point differences in the lines.”

Michael Konik, a sports writer and best-selling author of The Smart Money (Simon & Schuster 2006), explains why it is so hard for the recreational gambler to win at betting on football.

Newspapers and popular sports sites routinely publish the lines or point spreads for games, and football insiders offer their picks to viewers each week on ESPN and other cable networks.

Although exact figures are impossible to calculate, according to Jimmy Vaccaro, widely considered to be Las Vegas’ most influential bookmaker, Americans probably wager more than $50 billion a year on NFL and college football combined. “Teams play inspired ball at home. Drinking and Gambling Don’t Mix – “There is a reason the casinos in Las Vegas supply you with free drinks while you are gambling,” Moseman says

Cantor Gaming Announces In-Running Wagering for The NFL Season

Cantor is

the first company licensed as a manufacturer, distributor, and operator

of a mobile gaming system by the state of Nevada and remains the world

leader. Cantor was also the first company to introduce in-running

wagering in Las Vegas, at the M Resort Spa & Casino’s Race and Sports

Book. Amaitis added, “In-Running is hugely successful at the M’s Race &

Sports Book. In-Running betting allows

wagering on live sporting events throughout the event. “We are constantly looking for

opportunities to add new and exciting amenities to our overall guest

experience and this is the type of “only in Las Vegas” concept that

helps differentiate The Venetian and Palazzo from other properties on

the Strip, and also demonstrates the true uniqueness of Las Vegas and

why there is no city in America quite like it.”

Cantor Gaming is an affiliate of global financial services provider

Cantor Fitzgerald, which has over 60 years of experience and

unparalleled expertise of highly secure real-time financial transaction

processing, management, and execution. With In-Running, customers can place bets during the

game, so fans can have a stake in the action all the way through the

event,” said Lee Amaitis, President and CEO of Cantor Gaming.

About Cantor Gaming

“The addition of “In-Running” is certainly going to enhance our sports

book offering and be a huge hit with the many sports aficionados who

spend time at our properties,” said Robert Goldstein, president of both

The Venetian and Palazzo Las Vegas. Cantor Gaming offers mobile

solutions to the gaming industry as well as developers of proprietary

casino games including XtraOdds Baccarat(TM) and Bonus Roulette(TM). In

addition to NFL games, In-Running will be available for select NCAA

football games this season.

Mr. Amaitis said the bets that will be offered through In-Running are:

Mr. We opened the action with the NCAA March Madness Basketball

Tournament, continued throughout the NBA Playoffs, horse racing’s Triple

Crown, and currently offer selected Major League Baseball games.

Full Game Money Line

Full Game Point Line

Full Game Total, Over/Under

First Half Money Line

First Half Point Line

First Half Total Over/Under

LAS VEGAS–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Cantor Gaming, an affiliate of the global financial services firm Cantor

Fitzgerald, today announced that its extremely popular “In-Running”

sports betting product will be available at The Venetian, Palazzo and

the M Resort Spa Casino in Las Vegas for the 2009 NFL season, beginning

with Tennessee at Pittsburgh on September 10. The NFL

season is immensely popular with sports betters and we’re excited to

extend our product offerings to The Venetian and Palazzo.”

“In-Running is particularly well suited for football because of the

popularity of the game and the huge number of football fans interested

in sports betting. In-Running betting allows wagering on live sporting events throughout

the event.

Through Cantor Gaming’s In-Running, wagers also will be accepted on

whether:

For more information, visit www.cantorgaming.com

The current drive will yield a first down.

The current drive will result in a punt, field goal, touchdown, or an

interception/fumble.

Twenty or more yards will be gained on the next play.

Any field goal attempt will be made or missed.

Baseball Hitting Drills – Tips and Drills For Using Hitting Stick Trainers by Nick Dixon

MIDDLE STRIKE CONTACT – The holder will move around a couple more feet. Then later came other versions including the Hit2win Trainer^ and the SKLZ Target Trainer. The ball should be positioned slightly in front of the batters front foot. The height of the ball should be raised and lowered in the strike zone to give the batter swings at both high and low strikes.

There are many versions of the “ball-on-a-rod” trainer. Check to make sure the batter is using proper grip, stance and stride mechanics.

4. First, the product is to be used as a “still” ball trainer. 3. The batter swings and drives the ball in a direction that would be to the opposite field. The ball hit is on the middle 3rd of the plate. The batter does not move. Second, the holder must stand at the proper angle to the batter and direct the ball at the correct angle to the batter. You can learn to hit without having to chase, pick-up or retrieve a single ball. All of these baseball trainers basically work and perform the same. Make sure that the hitting area is safe with no one within 15 feet of the holder or the batter.

The http://BaseballCoachingDigest.com has a great selection of BASEBALL COACHING and TRAINING ARTICLES. These trainers are some of the most popular baseball batting trainers used today.

1. The batter should keep the head still and the head should stay down with the eyes on the ball throughout the swing.

1. Allowing the ball to pass inside the front foot allows the batter to use the front foot and leg as a anchor and leverage to generate a more powerful swing.

The popularity come from the benefits they offer the baseball player, baseball coach, and the baseball parent. ^Hit2win is a registered trademark of Nedco Sports Products. Every player on the team can take 30 warm-up swings each in less than 10 minutes.

3. The batter should take a step and drive the ball.

2. Check out the Bat Action Hitting Machine baseball pitching simulator at http://BatAction.com. Make sure the ball is directed at the batter’s back foot.

7. The batter will drive the bat through the box. Positive reinforcement should be given when the batter makes good solid contact.

8. This teaches the batter to allow the ball down the middle to get inside the front foot so that maximum power can be generated during the swing. The batter should attack the inside strike earlier to keep from getting jammed.

4. If the angle is wrong, the end of the bat will hit behind the ball and the bat will never actually touch the ball. The holder should make sure that the trainer safety strap is used to prevent the holder from losing their grip on the trainer when the batter hits the ball.

The key to proper use of any hand-held batting device is KNOWING AND USING THE CORRECT ANGLE FOR THE DRILL YOU ARE DOING! If you do not direct or point the ball at the proper angle, the batter will always make poor contact. The unit is portable and requires no setup. Make sure the batter does not over stride.

6. You should not move the ball when using these trainers. Make sure that the batter is swinging in a direction that is free of persons should the batter lose the grip on the bat.

Baseball Hitting Drills – Tips and Drills For Using Hitting Stick Trainers

 by: Nick Dixon

2. The first and original version was the HitnStik*. The purpose of these swings is to make the batter use the hips as the batter turns and hits the ball. The holder will change the location of the ball by moving.

As the inventor of the HitnStik*, Hit2win Trainer^, and SKLZ Target+ Trainer, I sometimes cringe when I see someone using the product incorrectly. The batter may have to take a slight inward step with the front foot to properly execute this swing.

The holder changes location and height and allows the batter to take 6 swings at each location. The first thing to remember is that the holder should always direct the rod and ball toward the hitter’s back foot. HIP TURNER LOCATION – The holder stands slightly behind the batter directing the ball at the batter’s bat pocket. The ball should be at a location just inside the batters back foot. This simple rule insures that proper bat-to-ball contact is made. The ball will be positioned in a location behind the front foot. All of these are handheld units. The ball should be positioned at a location inside the batters front foot. They have different names but they all are great trainers to teach and train young players. This location simulates hitting a pitch over the inside 3rd of the plate. +SKLZ Target is a registered trademark of Pro Performance Sports.

10. This is what I call “coning out”. . I often see coaches and parents working with players when I visit a park. INSIDE STRIKE – The holder moves toward the direction of the pitcher from the batter. Remember to direct the ball toward the belly button or back foot of the batter.

9. AWAY STRIKE LOCATION – The holder will move around a couple more feet to give the batter a ball to hit that is on the outer 3rd of the plate. It is important to know the proper angles when using this product.

Coaching Points:

The 4X5 Baseball and Softball Pre-game Warm-up Drill

5. I sometimes get frustrated because I observe the product being used incorrectly.

The batter takes 5 swings at 5 different ball locations. It is welcomed in complexes and parks because it allows safe pre-game warm-up, requires little space, and does not damage fences. This high speed training machine is 100% Guaranteed to raise Batting Averages and has a full year warranty.

*HitnStik is a registered trademark belong to Easton Sports

What They Are, How to Read Them and What to Do With Them by Ed Bagley

The Explorers next job will be to actually win a game. The ratings are updated following each week’s games and published in USA Today on Wednesdays.

The first job for La Salle this year will be to score a touchdown, or any points, including a field goal or touchback. 31 after hammering Syracuse 42-14 in its home opener.

Copyright © 2007 Ed Bagley

A diminishing-returns principle exists to prevent teams from building up ratings by running up large victory margins against weak teams. 57 after the loss. La Salle is a Catholic university located in Philadelphia.

Folks in the gaming business know that more than a billion dollars is wagered on every Monday Night Football game during the season.

3) Appalachian State, a AA school, was rated No. 40 by Sagarin. . The win was the biggest upset in college football history as no AA team had ever beaten a ranked team.

2) Michigan State, another short end of the stick team for far too long, was rated No. Following its horrendous loss, Michigan ended up being ranked No. 145 after its opening loss) face off in week two. The worst-rated A school is Florida International at No. 143 after its opening loss) and Buffalo (ranked No. 5) Notre Dame, beaten badly (33-3) by Georgia Tech, was rated No. 242 La Salle Explorers. Georgia Tech was rated No. Both teams are among the 7 worst Division I-A teams in the country, joining Louisiana-Monroe, Rice, Duke, Utah State and Florida International.

A hypothetical victory margin is determined by comparing the rating of the two teams after adding 2.93 points to the home team. Ursinus is not a planet but a real liberal arts college in Pennsylvania.

6) Temple (ranked No. The worst-rated AA school is the No. For Sagarin ratings and more detailed information go to: www.usatoday.com

Michigan was ranked No. Instead, it rewards teams that do well against good opponents.

Following the first week of college football action, here are some facts that interested me about Sagarin’s first-week ratings:

For those who wager, it may be helpful to put some science on your side when you wager, and one of the best places to do that is with the Sagarin College Football Ratings.

Created by Jeff Sagarin, a 1970 MIT mathematics graduate, these computer ratings are for Division I-A (what the NCAA now calls the Football Bowl (FB) Subdivision) and Division I-AA (what the NCAA now calls the Football Championship (FC) Subdivision) teams.

The Sagarin College Football Ratings: What They Are, How to Read Them and What to Do With Them

 by: Ed Bagley

La Salle lost its home opener to Ursinus 28-0. Now you can better understand why La Salle College is ranked last among 242 Division I schools.

Anyway, the Sagarin rating is a numerical measure of a team’s strength.

1) Washington, one of the poor to mediocre teams in the country the last several years, was rated No. The Irish failed to score a touchdown for the first time ever in their home opener.

USA Today, the largest circulation newspaper in the United States, is the nation’s daily newspaper and carries the Sagarin College Football Ratings. 38 following its upset of mighty Michigan 34-32 on Michigan’s home field. 36 after steamrolling over UAB 55-18 in its home opener.

While betting on sports is only legal in a few places in the United States, such as Las Vegas, millions of office workers are involved in sports pools every week now that the football season has arrived.

Only Division I (both A and AA) are counted for rating and schedule strength during the season.

The BCS (Bowl Championship Series) does not factor in scoring margin. 2. The home edge will vary during the season.

If there is a way for the NCAA to assert its superior power, it does so by making everything more difficult and confusing, similar to your United States government and its IRS tax code which could reduce a sane person to tears just reading it.

When you know that more than $700 million can be bet on one game–the Super Bowl–in only Las Vegas, then you understand that billions were bet illegally on the Super Bowl last year in the United States and in offshore sports books around the world.

7) A total of 242 teams, 119 A schools and 123 AA schools, make up the Sagarin College Football Ratings. Good luck, La Salle, and God speed.

4) Wyoming, a small school and never among the nation’s top teams, was ranked No. 174 (56 AA teams are rated better), and their play reflects their rating. 5 by both the AP Poll and Coaches Poll going into the game. 41 by Sagarin following its 23-3 home victory over Virginia.

You will have to forgive the NCAA for taking titles that have been used for years and are perfectly clear, then renaming them and creating confusion in the process.

Ursinus College is not a Division 1 school (which includes the 242 teams with La Salle), not a Division II team (which includes another 157 teams), but a Division III team